Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 98% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 95% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 92% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 89% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 88% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 87% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 86% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 86% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 84% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 84% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 83% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 82% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 82% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 80% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 80% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 79% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 79% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 78% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 77% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 77% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 77% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 76% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 74% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 72% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 71% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 70% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 69% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 67% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 66% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 66% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 64% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 62% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 61% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 61% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 59% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 56% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 55% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 54% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 53% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 51% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| George Pickens: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| George Pickens: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| KaVontae Turpin: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| KaVontae Turpin: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Luke Schoonmaker: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 49% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 44% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 41% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 40% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 39% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 38% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 37% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 36% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 35% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 34% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 34% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 33% |
| Javonte Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 33% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 30% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 29% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 29% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 28% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 28% |
| George Pickens: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 25% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 25% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Luke Schoonmaker: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 24% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 23% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 22% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 22% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 22% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Jake Ferguson: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 22% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 20% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 20% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 19% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 18% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 18% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 18% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 17% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 17% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 17% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 16% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 14% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 374.5 | 14% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 14% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 14% |
| Javonte Williams: 2+ Touchdowns | 14% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 14% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 119.5 | 14% |
| Tyler Goodson: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 13% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 13% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 13% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 13% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 13% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 13% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 13% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 12% |
| Dak Prescott: Anytime Touchdown | 12% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 12% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 374.5 | 11% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 11% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 11% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 11% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| CeeDee Lamb: 2+ Touchdowns | 11% |
| KaVontae Turpin: Anytime Touchdown | 8% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 6% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 6% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 6% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 9.5 | 6% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Jonathan Mingo: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| George Pickens: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Ryan Flournoy: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 98% Chance für prognose: cowboys vs. packers - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Cowboys and Packers, scheduled for October 18 at 8:20 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Cowboys vs. Packers - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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