Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 80% |
| Spread -0.5 | 79% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 75% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 73% |
| Chargers O/U 10.5 | 73% |
| O/U 34.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| O/U 36.5 | 66% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -4.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Chargers O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 40.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Chargers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Chargers O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 46.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Chargers O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 35% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Safety? | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Chargers O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 1-6 | 28% |
| O/U 50.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Chargers O/U 34.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Chargers O/U 27.5 | 18% |
| Chargers O/U 30.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Chargers O/U 23.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Chargers O/U 26.5 | 8% |
| O/U 66.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: chargers vs. chiefs 94%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Chargers and Chiefs, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chargers" if Chargers win the game. This market w…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $104K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Chargers vs. Chiefs auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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