Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 95% |
| O/U 32.5 | 95% |
| O/U 33.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 94% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Cowboys O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| Cowboys O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Cowboys O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| O/U 36.5 | 91% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| Cowboys O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| O/U 38.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 86% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| O/U 40.5 | 83% |
| O/U 41.5 | 82% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 81% |
| O/U 42.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Cowboys O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| O/U 43.5 | 78% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| O/U 44.5 | 75% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 74% |
| Cowboys O/U 20.5 | 74% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 74% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 45.5 | 72% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 71% |
| O/U 46.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| O/U 47.5 | 66% |
| O/U 48.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 65% |
| Cowboys O/U 23.5 | 64% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| O/U 50.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| O/U 51.5 | 56% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| O/U 52.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 55% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| Cowboys O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| O/U 53.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Cowboys vs. Packers | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 50% |
| Cowboys Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| O/U 54.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| Cowboys O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| Safety? | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| O/U 55.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 43% |
| O/U 56.5 | 42% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 57.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 58.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| O/U 59.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Cowboys O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 62.5 | 26% |
| Cowboys Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 63.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| Cowboys vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| O/U 65.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 19% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 20.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 1-6 | 17% |
| O/U 67.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Cowboys O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 71.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 96% Chance für prognose: cowboys vs. packers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL football game between Cowboys and Packers, scheduled for October 18 at 8:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if Cowboys win the game. This market wil…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $218K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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