Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 100% |
| O/U 31.5 | 99% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 98% |
| O/U 34.5 | 97% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 97% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 97% |
| O/U 35.5 | 96% |
| O/U 37.5 | 96% |
| O/U 36.5 | 96% |
| Panthers O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 33.5 | 95% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 95% |
| O/U 38.5 | 94% |
| O/U 39.5 | 93% |
| O/U 40.5 | 92% |
| O/U 42.5 | 90% |
| O/U 41.5 | 88% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 87% |
| O/U 43.5 | 86% |
| O/U 32.5 | 86% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 86% |
| O/U 44.5 | 82% |
| O/U 45.5 | 82% |
| Panthers O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 46.5 | 78% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 78% |
| Panthers O/U 23.5 | 77% |
| O/U 47.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| O/U 48.5 | 73% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 69% |
| O/U 49.5 | 67% |
| O/U 50.5 | 64% |
| O/U 51.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 52.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 58% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 55% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Panthers O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 53% |
| O/U 29.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| O/U 30.5 | 52% |
| O/U 54.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 52% |
| O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 51% |
| Lions vs. Panthers | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Panthers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions vs. Panthers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Panthers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 48% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| O/U 56.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| O/U 60.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| O/U 59.5 | 39% |
| O/U 57.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 58.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| O/U 62.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| O/U 64.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 65.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 67.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 4% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: lions vs. panthers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 8:20PM ET: If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions". If Panthers wins, the market will resolve to "Panthers". If the g…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $8.2M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Lions vs. Panthers über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Lions vs. Panthers" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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