Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 94% |
| O/U 33.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 89% |
| O/U 36.5 | 89% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| O/U 38.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 81% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 42.5 | 77% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| O/U 43.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 72% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| O/U 45.5 | 68% |
| O/U 46.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| O/U 47.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 48.5 | 61% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| O/U 49.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 50.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| O/U 51.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| O/U 52.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| O/U 53.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| O/U 55.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 56.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| O/U 57.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 31% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 60.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | 23% |
| Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| O/U 61.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| O/U 63.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 64.5 | 16% |
| O/U 65.5 | 15% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 67.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 71.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 96% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Commanders vs. 49ers. In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Commanders" if Commanders win the game. This market will resolve to …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $134K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Commanders vs. 49ers über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Commanders vs. 49ers" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →