Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| O/U 31.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 33.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Chargers O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 85% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 81% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| O/U 41.5 | 74% |
| Spread -1.5 | 73% |
| O/U 42.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 65% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Chargers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chargers vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| O/U 51.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 39% |
| Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 56.5 | 32% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 58.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| Chargers vs. Bills | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| O/U 61.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| O/U 62.5 | 17% |
| O/U 63.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| O/U 64.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| O/U 67.5 | 9% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| O/U 71.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Chargers vs. Bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Chargers wins, the market will resolve to "Chargers". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $91K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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