Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 20.5 | 96% |
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| Texans O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| Texans O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 81% |
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 32.5 | 80% |
| Texans O/U 13.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| O/U 34.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| O/U 36.5 | 68% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| O/U 38.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 58% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| Texans 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Texans O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| Texans 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 44% |
| 1H Moneyline | 44% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Texans 1H O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| Texans 1H O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| O/U 44.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Texans vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Texans 1H O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| Texans 1H O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 38% |
| Safety? | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 46.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| Texans O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| O/U 48.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Texans O/U 26.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 52.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| O/U 54.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Texans O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Texans O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Texans O/U 30.5 | 13% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-12 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 13-18 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 25+ | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Texans vs. Jaguars" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL football game between Texans and Jaguars, scheduled for October 18 at 9:30AM ET: This market will resolve to "Texans" if Texans win the game. This market will resolve to "Jaguars" …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $496K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Texans vs. Jaguars über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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