Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| O/U 32.5 | 92% |
| Ravens O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Ravens O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Bengals O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Bengals O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Ravens O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| Bengals O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| O/U 36.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 80% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Ravens O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Bengals O/U 19.5 | 71% |
| Ravens O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| O/U 42.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 69% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| Bengals O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 44.5 | 64% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| O/U 46.5 | 57% |
| Ravens O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Bengals O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 52% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| O/U 48.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| Bengals O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Ravens O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Bengals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Ravens Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Bengals O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Bengals O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 1-6 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 1-6 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 49% |
| Bengals vs. Ravens: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 49% |
| Bengals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Bengals vs. Ravens | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| Safety? | 48% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 48% |
| Ravens Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Ravens Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 20.5 | 46% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 20.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Ravens O/U 26.5 | 45% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 50.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| Ravens O/U 27.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 52.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Bengals O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| O/U 54.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| O/U 56.5 | 30% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Ravens O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| O/U 58.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Bengals O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 64.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: bengals vs. ravens 95%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bengals and Ravens, scheduled for October 25 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bengals" if Bengals win the game. This market will…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $147K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Bengals vs. Ravens auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
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