Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 211.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 76% |
| O/U 217.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 220.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 223.5 | 60% |
| O/U 225.5 | 57% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 54% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 227.5 | 53% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| O/U 230.5 | 45% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 233.5 | 39% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | 36% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 33% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 236.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5 | 27% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 239.5 | 26% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 39.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 83% Chance für prognose: rockets vs. spurs. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 9:30PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $93K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Rockets vs. Spurs" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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