Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Clippers O/U 98.5 | 79% |
| Lakers O/U 108.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 48.5 | 71% |
| Clippers O/U 102.5 | 70% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 53.5 | 69% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 59.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5 | 64% |
| Clippers O/U 104.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 63% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 9.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 50.5 | 61% |
| Lakers O/U 114.5 | 61% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 55.5 | 60% |
| Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 9.5 | 59% |
| O/U 222.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 57% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Walker Kessler: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 57.5 | 52% |
| O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Keaton Wagler: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Clippers O/U 108.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Clippers O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Clippers O/U 103.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Clippers O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Clippers O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Clippers O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 129.5 | 50% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Clippers O/U 97.5 | 50% |
| Clippers O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 49% |
| O/U 226.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Lakers O/U 118.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| O/U 227.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| O/U 228.5 | 45% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| O/U 229.5 | 44% |
| Walker Kessler: Assists O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 24.5 | 42% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| O/U 231.5 | 40% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Keaton Wagler: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 54.5 | 40% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Spread -12.5 | 38% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| O/U 233.5 | 36% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Darius Garland: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 36% |
| Clippers O/U 112.5 | 36% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| O/U 234.5 | 33% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 61.5 | 33% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 56.5 | 31% |
| Clippers O/U 114.5 | 31% |
| Spread -15.5 | 30% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| O/U 236.5 | 28% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 22.5 | 28% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 25.5 | 28% |
| Keaton Wagler: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Quentin Grimes: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Lakers O/U 124.5 | 28% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5 | 27% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 12.5 | 27% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 27% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 238.5 | 25% |
| O/U 239.5 | 25% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Keaton Wagler: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| Clippers vs. Lakers | 24% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 44.5 | 24% |
| Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| O/U 241.5 | 23% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Spread -18.5 | 22% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Quentin Grimes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 34.5 | 21% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Darius Garland: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 21% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 21% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 49.5 | 19% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Clippers O/U 118.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 18% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Lakers O/U 128.5 | 18% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| O/U 244.5 | 16% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 39.5 | 15% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| O/U 247.5 | 14% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 14% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 29.5 | 13% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 39.5 | 13% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 250.5 | 10% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Clippers vs. Lakers — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 79%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Clippers win, the market will resolve to "Clippers". If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game is pos…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $176K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Clippers vs. Lakers" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →