Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 99% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 90% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 46% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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