Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 71% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 22% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2322c55e%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →