Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 74% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 59% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 54% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Yassine Bounou: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Chadi Riad: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 45% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 37% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 32% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots | 29% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Issa Diop: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Gessime Yassine: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 2% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 85% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: France vs. Morocco - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Morocco, scheduled for July 9 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Morocco - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →