Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 43% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 32% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 15% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 92%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →