Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 96% |
| O/U 37.5 | 95% |
| O/U 39.5 | 92% |
| O/U 41.5 | 89% |
| O/U 43.5 | 87% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 83% |
| O/U 45.5 | 82% |
| O/U 47.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| O/U 49.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Colorado State O/U 23.5 | 74% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| O/U 51.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| O/U 53.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 67% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| O/U 55.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| O/U 57.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Colorado State 2H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| O/U 59.5 | 53% |
| Colorado State O/U 29.5 | 53% |
| 1H Moneyline | 53% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Colorado State O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| Colorado State 1H O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 47% |
| O/U 61.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Colorado State 2H O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Colorado State 2H O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 43% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Colorado State O/U 32.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| San Diego State O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Colorado State O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 63.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| Colorado State 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| O/U 65.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 67.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| San Diego State O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Colorado State O/U 35.5 | 30% |
| O/U 69.5 | 29% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 27% |
| Colorado State O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| O/U 71.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| O/U 73.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| O/U 75.5 | 19% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: San Diego State vs. Colorado State. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Colorado State, scheduled for October 24 at 6:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State win the game. …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $79K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: San Diego State vs. Colorado State" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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