Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 97% |
| O/U 35.5 | 90% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| North Carolina O/U 23.5 | 78% |
| O/U 41.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 74% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke | 72% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| North Carolina O/U 20.5 | 64% |
| O/U 45.5 | 63% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| North Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Duke 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Duke 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Duke 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Duke O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Duke O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| O/U 49.5 | 49% |
| North Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 47% |
| Duke O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| O/U 51.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| O/U 57.5 | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| Spread -20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 63.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 11% |
| O/U 69.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: north carolina vs. duke 100%. In the upcoming college football game between North Carolina and Duke, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "North Carolina" if North Carolina win the…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $192K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: North Carolina vs. Duke über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: North Carolina vs. Duke" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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