Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 98% |
| O/U 37.5 | 98% |
| O/U 39.5 | 97% |
| O/U 41.5 | 97% |
| O/U 43.5 | 97% |
| O/U 49.5 | 97% |
| O/U 53.5 | 97% |
| O/U 55.5 | 94% |
| O/U 57.5 | 93% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 91% |
| Spread -5.5 | 90% |
| Spread -3.5 | 89% |
| Spread -1.5 | 88% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 88% |
| Spread -2.5 | 87% |
| Spread -4.5 | 86% |
| O/U 51.5 | 86% |
| Spread -0.5 | 85% |
| Spread -6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 61.5 | 85% |
| O/U 47.5 | 84% |
| Spread -13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 59.5 | 83% |
| Spread -12.5 | 83% |
| Spread -7.5 | 82% |
| Spread -14.5 | 81% |
| Spread -10.5 | 80% |
| O/U 63.5 | 80% |
| O/U 65.5 | 79% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 75% |
| Spread -8.5 | 74% |
| Spread -20.5 | 73% |
| O/U 67.5 | 72% |
| Spread -16.5 | 70% |
| O/U 69.5 | 70% |
| Spread -17.5 | 68% |
| O/U 71.5 | 65% |
| O/U 75.5 | 56% |
| O/U 73.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Georgia State O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| James Madison O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| James Madison O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Georgia State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Georgia State vs. James Madison: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Georgia State vs. James Madison: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State vs. James Madison: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State vs. James Madison: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State vs. James Madison: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Georgia State vs. James Madison: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Georgia State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Georgia State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 49% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -1.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Georgia State vs. James Madison | 4% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Georgia State vs. James Madison" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming college football game between Georgia State and James Madison, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Georgia State" if Georgia State win the game. This m…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $274K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Georgia State vs. James Madison" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →